Thursday, December 2, 2010

The Qatar Conundrum

Why and how did Qatar get to host the world cup? A great, well reasoned analysis with a brilliant, informed conclusion-
"What differentiates Qatar, however, is that its case to win the World Cup by legitimate means — for all the reasons I have outlined above — would seem to be relatively weak. Several months ago, oddsmakers had put its chances at about 6-1 against, versus 5-2 against for the United States — and that was before FIFA designated it as high-risk. From the point of view of Bayesian statistics, that makes the probability of bribery greater.

If anything untoward occurred, it will probably be discovered, eventually. But whatever the reasons for it, FIFA’s decision is hard to understand."- Qatar a Questionable World Cup Host - NYTimes.com

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