Thursday, March 19, 2009

Indian general elections - Beggars can't be choosers


Elections are just a month away and two big parties are already in a spot of bother. BJP started badly with a tiff between Jaitley and Rajnath before Varun chipped in to worsen things further. Their alliance partners in Bengal, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh have ditched them. Have none in TN. Karnataka was their only hope in the south before their distant cousins showed their faces to the world in Mangalore. Gujarat and MP might help them shore up the tally but Rajasthan may pull them down as Gujjars haven't done with it yet. Looks like their fortunes will slide further down with troubles in UP. Our primer minister in waiting may never make it to the top chair.

Few months back I thought Congress is in for a tough test. But BJP with its internal bickering and poor management gave wonderful opportunity for Congress to consolidate their strengths. But their bloated ego is not allowing them to do that. They are friendless in UP and now are doing it to Lalu in Bihar. Congress is going to field 27 candidates in Bihar. What a joke? Congress must realise that it has little or no presence in some states and that include TN, UP, Bengal, and Bihar. Importantly these 4 states alone send nearly 190 MPs to Lok Sabha. If we do some finer analysis taking into account states like Gujarat, Madhya pradesh, Tripura and Kerala, where opposition is very strong, then we may find that Congress has a presence on its own in only about 250 to 300 seats and even in 3/4th of those seats opposition has average to very good presence. A surprise may be in store for them in Andhra Pradesh. It's a clear math that Congress has to beg to reach that magical mark of 272. Beggars can't be choosers and they can't have a ego.

If congress thinks they can put together numbers post-election then am afraid they are making a mistake. Comrades are sprucing up the third front, a collection of small parties with leaders whose ambitions are to win the prime ministerial lottery. It already has some strong support in the form of TDP, Communists, and BSP. Add Naveen Patnaik and Gowda to the equation, you are looking at a number anywhere between 100 - 120. Post election, the third front is likely to be the most favoured option for Lalu, Paswan, Jayalalitha and other prime ministerial candidates. Even Mulayam might find Mayavati to be his sister like and join hands with third front. With dangling carrot in front Karunanidhi might also support the third front alongside Jayalalitha.

Congress is probably the best hope at present for many Indians, both voting and non-voting. But they are not learning from their past mistakes. They don't understand that they are tolerated by many (Communits and the like) because there is a BJP. Otherwise they may have gone to dogs by now. BJP is not in a great position. It has enough on its hands. But by allowing their ego to bloat further Congress is probably giving BJP a life line here.

Come may 16th, yet another third front tamasha might unfold in front of us. If that happens who would win the lottery? Maya / Jaya / Babu / Lalu / Gowda (he still nurtures his ambition)?


27 comments:

  1. Yes.

    In cricketing terms, congress and and BJP are both caught in a run-out like situation, and the home umpire, who does the prop up usually, seems likely to pad up...

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  2. Who do you think is best suited to become the Prime Minister of this country?

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  3. Is there one Kartikey, the best suited?

    I always felt some one like Rajesh Pilot would do a very good job but unfortunately he died young after gallantly standing up against Sonia and Nehru family stooges. No other politician aroused my interest after Pilot. Nowadays I only look for the best option. Under the circumstances I want Congress to come back to power. But then I want their alliance partner in TN defeated.

    If third front comes to the power then Lalu might become the PM. He has more acceptability among politicians and is having a good time for the lat 5 years as a Railway minister. The man whom we joked around may become our prime minister. Could be our own Bush in terms of humor value.

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  4. I think Jayalalitha is a reasonable option given the situation and when compared to Singh, Sonia, LK, Lalu, Gowda, Maya et al. She definitely has an ability to view things wider, in national interest. definitely better than all these

    At our state, I only have one wish. The current one should go away, once and for all.

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  5. Balajhi, you have a good sense of humour.

    Ha! Ha! (demented laughter)!

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  6. Oh my God, Siva, you also have a great sense of humour. We all have great sense of humour.

    Ha! Ha! Ha! (more demented laughter)!

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  7. there can be 3 possible questions.
    a. who will
    b. who should be and
    c. who should not be.
    cong will ultimately form the govt. even if 3rd front hold office for some short time. and singh is the obvious choice for cong.

    And funnily Modi is the answer for both b and c questions. b for his success as CM and c for his govts failure to maintain communal harmony. and more it supported one over and to remove other. This one quality definitely stands against Modi to become the PM of the greatest secular country.

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  8. I don't think Modi can ever become a prime minister untill BJP wins majority on its own, which is unlikely to happen.

    It's a sad state of affairs that we don't have a single worthwhile prime ministerial candidate among the many leaders of various parties. Whoever we may vote to and end up with will only be a compromise solution.

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  9. MSD Dhoni would be a good prime minister.

    No, seriously.

    Maybe in time to come...

    I don't want to vote for the same mealnge which is likely to be presented to me in my constituency.

    I'd welcome a new candidate.

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  10. If there has to be someone from the same deck of cards, I would prefer Pronob Mukherjee.

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  11. Yes, let's be creative in our choices.

    We are talking about the ideal PM, not the possible PM.

    So MSD is a good choice, but he has no parliamentary experience, so may be he can be accomodated in Rajya Sabha.

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  12. MSD has great luck. he can aswell captain indian parliament too.

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  13. MSD won't be a bad choice SB. He comes across as a natural leader. He assumes leadership well. But politics is different. In any case it's good to nurture these thoughts. Let's hope there are silver linings.

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  14. Kartikey & Balajhi, I chose Sam Pitroda, SB chose MSD. Who is your choice if you can make someone PM?

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  15. I am still compiling my list Baskar. These two names are in memory right now.

    Salman Rushdie
    Arun Shourie

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  16. Provocative choices...

    I suppose V S Naipaul is disqualified or else he could be the first choice...

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  17. I think MSD is a better choice compared to Sam Pitroda. MSD is young and takes up the leadership role with lot of ease.

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  18. Balajhi may be MSD is a good leader. But seriously, you are comparing him with Sam Pitroda!

    Are you serious about this?

    Dhoni is not even a graduate.

    This I found in Wikipedia:

    " Sam completed his schooling from Vallabh Vidyanagar in Gujarat and completed his Masters in Physics and Electronics from Maharaja Sayajirao University in Vadodara. After completing a Masters in Physics from Maharaja Sayajirao University in Vadodara he went to the US and did his Masters in electrical engineering from Illinois Institute of Technology in Chicago."

    and,

    "
    In 1984, Mr. Pitroda was invited to return to India by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. On his return, he started the Center for Development of Telematics (C-DOT), an autonomous telecom R&D organization. In 1987, he became advisor to Mrs. Gandhi's successor, Rajiv Gandhi and was responsible for shaping India's foreign and domestic telecommunications policies. He is largely considered responsible for the telecommunications revolution in India and specifically, the ubiquitous, yellow-signed Public Call Offices (PCO) that quickly brought cheap and easy domestic and international public telephones all over the country."

    His track record deserves some respect.

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  19. "Kartikey & Balajhi, I chose Sam Pitroda, SB chose MSD. Who is your choice if you can make someone PM?"

    You sholdn't have asked this if you think I shouldn't be comparing MSD with Sam Pitroda. And just because my choice is not Pitroda doesn't mean I don't have respect for him.

    If intelligence and educational excellence is the answer for leading the nation then there 'n' no. of people there including Sam Pitroda. But you chose Sam because you saw something more than his intelligence and academic excellence. Like wise I see certain things in MSD which I think puts him ahead of Sam Pitroda. That is it. No disrespect in it for Sam. Otherwise I would say you disrespecting Amartya Sen. In fact he is a better choice than Sam Pitroda.

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  20. Five people making five different, personal, choices is okay. There is no sense in fighting with that.


    But when your write, "I think MSD is a better choice compared to Sam Pitroda," should I not ask whether you are serious about this or not? You are comparing two people, I am asking what is your thinking that makes you say MSD is better than Sam Pitroda.

    That is why I wanted to know what is the special quality that makes MSD better suited to be PM than Sam Pitroda.

    To my thinking, Sam Pitroda has these pluses- he is obviously educated, knows about technology and management, has experience in managing private enterprise and Government enterprise, has spent some time studying about the education issue. He has another plus, which is that he is secular, he belongs to a minority (I suppose he is a Christian).

    MSD has these pluses- he motivates his team, puts right people in the right place, plays no favorites, is diplomatic, charismatic and he always appears relaxed.

    But I wonder whether this is enough to run a nation in the complex environment that we find today- the world affairs and economy are in a flux, this is a technology driven age, and India needs to make rapid strides in technological innovation and educational standards to keep up with the leaders.

    I think, in such a situation, lack of experience in running a private enterprise and a public enterprise, ignorance of technology and above all absence of any experience in managing a complex organisation are all defects to any leader in any country in this period of time.

    Of course it would be better if Sam Pitrodia has done something on poverty, housing, foreign affairs, monetary economics, health and environment. But there is only so much a man can do.

    And for all his brilliance and ebullience, MSD will have a tough time when knows anything about management, corporate affairs, governance and technology. He is a quick learner, but I am not sure whether you can learn these things on the job.

    I would like to know what are the "...certain things in MSD which I think puts him ahead of Sam Pitroda"

    As for the choice between Amartya Sen or Sam Pitroda- that is one intelligent comparison.

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  21. Then you should have simply asked why Dhoni over Sam Pitroda instead of.... Anyway let's leave that.

    Sam Pitroda is definitely a brilliant man and in many ways responsible for the IT revolution in the country. But I would give more credit for Rajiv for doing the right thing that of going to Sam.

    A leader is someone who takes up the responsibility with aplomb. Dhoni is definitely shining well, so far, on this front and is really an inspirational one as far as the ODI outfit goes. I do not know anything other than this about Dhoni and whether he will be a good politician.

    Sam Pitroda was there when Rajiv was there and vanished after that. He went back to his field and business. That's absolutely finet. But had he stayed and probably fought and even aligned with someone and had some success then he could have ushered in more changes with his brilliant technological brain. So he walked away from the scene. This shows his leadership qualities in poor light. I think he is back in some capacity nowadays.

    A good leader is someone who has a vision, sets the path and leads in front. A good manager is someone who does the job entrusted with him creditably. Sam probably falls in the second category.

    In his brief period as a leader of the Indian team, you will find that Dhoni stamped his authority where needed, kept his cool, led the way (changed his own game to suit the needs of the team), won the praises of his team and media and more importantly is graceful in the he conducts himself. I certainly see more leadership qualities in Dhoni than in Sam Pitroda.

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  22. If you are talking about a replacement for Manmohan Singh then yes Sam Pitroda could fit the bill but then if we are talking about a leader to lead India then I don't think he fits the bill. Ratan Tata will be miles ahead of him and so will many other leaders in various fields in India.

    Education is not necessarily the right indicator of intelligence. Also a leader need not know everything. If he can understand things and put them into a perspective then that would be fine.

    I am not for MSD as our future PM but for him only over Sam Pitroda that too purely on leadership qualities that are there for me to see and know.

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  23. After reading about MSD:

    Try Sachin Tendulkar. He will politely quit before dealing in anything inappropriate and not make a fuss over it. He will also quit if he feels he is not up to the job.

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  24. Okay Balajhi, I get your point.

    Kartikey, Sachin won't last the day. He will quit within one hour. Lalu and Mulayam and Maya and Amma and Karat will see to it (okay, sonia and advani too, to be fair)

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  25. It is outrageous to compare Sam with MSD, when done seriously. I do not have the knowledge to argue on either side, though.

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  26. Siva, I don't think you take part in discussions and things like that over the net. Otherwise you would not have made that ignorant remark.

    What has knowledge got to do with commenting? All you need is to be pig-headed, buffalo-skinned, and cocksure.

    I suppose you think you are better than us- otherwise you would not have made that 'knowledge' remark.

    Knowledge is evil on most of the forums. Volubility is what counts.

    Please practice shouting, you will find it easy to comment on almost anything; why, when you are an expert at it like me, you can even make a post on anything.

    Regards,

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