Swine flu- why you should not panic

Okay,  here are some links to get a grip on the general panic that is inundating us in a scary information tsunami...

First of all, "Closing schools, stopping large gatherings and other such measures are unlikely to do much to prevent the spread of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic" Reuters reports.

I went to Wolfram Alpha and got this:

Though swine flu is on the march,
date | cases | deaths
Friday, July 24, 2009 : 104089 - 561
Friday, July 17, 2009 : 100934 - 522
Friday, July 10, 2009 : 97572 - 470
Tuesday, July 7, 2009 : 97572 - 470
Monday, June 29, 2009 : 77159 - 354

it is not as lethal as could be:

cases | deaths
world : 104089 - 561
India : 129 - 0 (not updated, - this data is up to July 17 of this year.



As you can see, 561 cases out of 104089 is not so lethal, though it is a source of anxiety, of course.

And why are we scared?

When you don't know the outcome of some issue, you get creative- and people who can't think cool, they get anxious. It is a valid emotional reaction, but it does not mean it is right. It is just the way we are, and sometimes, anxiety does help you do the right thing.

Just to put things in perspective, I went to Wolfram Alpha again, and tried what happens when you get malnutrition:

In India alone,

number of deaths | 129074 deaths per year
cause of death probability : 1 in 80 ~~ 1.2%
rate of death : 12 deaths per 100000 persons per year
DALY ; 8.12 million life years lost per year (2002 estimates; DALY: Disability-Adjusted Life Years)

And all over the world,

number of deaths : 484143 deaths per year
cause of death probability : 1 in 118 ~~ 0.85%
rate of death ; 2132 deaths per 100000 persons per year
DALY : 34.33 million life years lost per year (2002 estimates; DALY: Disability-Adjusted Life Years)

Now, swine flu has killed 561 out of 104089, and malnutrition kills 129074 deaths per year in India alone, and the chances you will die if you 'get' malnutrition is 1 in 80, that 1.2 percent, and in case of swine flu it is .00538962, I think one man out of two hundred that get swine flu will get killed.

now why are we making such a big song and dance about swine flu?

To put it brutally, you and me, and the ruling class, they won't get malnutrition, it is the poor that do- but swine flu, anyone can get.

And then there is no medicine- even the Tamiflu the most prominent medicine for Swine Flu, is not so good: Times of India reports,

"While the drug provided a small benefit by shortening the duration of illness in children with seasonal influenza and reducing household transmission, it was found to have little effect on asthma flare-ups, says the study published in British Medical Journal."

and,

Researchers have clearly said that the harmful effects of Tamiflu and Relenza — another commonly used anti-viral drug — far outweigh their benefits and the results found for seasonal flu would apply for H1N1 too. The way out, they say, is to limit Tamiflu use, especially in children, to serious cases.

"Indian doctors say this is the latest in a long series of questions raised about the H1N1 ‘‘wonder drug’’. Earlier, another study had reported that Tamiflu caused nausea and nightmares in children.

"Said AIIMS professor of medicine Dr Randeep Guleria: ‘‘There have been other reports. In Japan, it was found to cause neuro-psychiatric manifestations like suicidal tendencies in patients. The drug’s literature, I believe, mentions this. That’s why we have been constantly warning against indiscriminate use.”"

You see where it takes us?

This is all about uncertainty and fear- don't panic.

That will solve half your problems.

And by the way, Kapil Sibal would be a great person to have at the health ministry right now- Ghulam Nabi Azad seems to suffer from foot-in-the-mouth disease and the sooner he is shifted somewhere else, it is better for us (of course bloggers like us will miss some potential bloopers, and easy posts).