The Sigmoid Curve

I am posting this blog with two purposes.

One is, as I said, to bring to you the things I found interesting and want to share. By which I mean, I want you to go over it and tell me how you feel about it.

The other use I make of blogs is, I keep them like a set of note-books. My notes are here, and because they get discussed I can see what value they have.

About twelve years back, the previous pay commission report came in. I used the arrears money I had, to get myself married, and for about three of four years, lived very comfortably. Then the prices started to climb, but my income did not. The last two three years have been terrible. It was as if you had a very short tether. There was nothing extra to spend on anything, in fact debts were climbing alarmingly, only, you managed to stop yourself from screaming, and tottered about, somehow getting to your destinations.

And now, here has come the next pay panel recommendations, and starting this month, life will be a piece of cake. I am not going to get rich, but I won't have to worry about money for expenses. But for how long, you will definitely ask.

So, this time, can it turn out to be a happy story?

I recently made a post on Handy's idea of a good-life.

In this post, I would like to bring to you Handy's concept of a Sigmoid Curve as an indicator of our growth and decline.

Sigmoid curve is a S-shaped curve, rotated ninety degress to its left. Handy says that everything, empires to organisations to products to people can be placed somewhere on the S-curve.

First, there is the period of growth when you put in money, time, effort, education. Results come in, output builds up, you grow, your firm grows. You have  a system which works well, you use up your resources, and you grow along nicely. Sooner of later, new challenges come in, times change, competitors catch up, new lessons have to be learnt. But you are peaking, so you feel comfortable, you are not aware of the different rules coming into play, and you ignore the pitfalls that lie ahead. As long as you were struggling, you were alert, but once things settle and you are living comfortably, you tend to get complacent.

Handy says that sooner or later, every curve will turn down. If you are going to wait for the inevitable downturn to trigger you into thinking about change, you are in for a hard time. Your reserves are spent, you are frightened, stressed and depressed. So it is better to think about changing, putting in investment and education, before the turn down begins, better to start the second sigmoid before the first one peaks.

So for you and me, the right time to think about developing a new life, to start involving ourselves in a different profession or interest, is when things are going well. When you feel totally comfortable and in command of your life and work, you are falling into complacency through trusting the illusion of security. It is always dangerous to rest on your past deeds, in private life and in your business.

So says Handy. You have to start at the bottom of the ladder, ground zero. Results won't come in quickly, it may be years before you see the upturn, but you are on your way. It is a optimistic, proactive way of life, right?

I suppose he is right.