Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Inequality of income and the US economic crisis

I came across an article titled 'Spread the wealth' in the recent edition of Outlook Business by Aseem Srivashtava. The author discusses the raising inequality of income and how it caused the financial crisis. I find it brilliant, especially the early parts of the article. He proposes a theory for the current state of affairs in the US economy. I am presenting my understanding of his argument, rather theory, below

In the US, despite productivity gains achieved by businesses, employees haven't gained much. Businesses grew, CEOs and their ilk grew richer, shareholders gained but not the employee who worked for their riches. From 1970 onwards real wages have stagnated however compensation packages of CEOs and managers have grown exponentially. If this is the case how come the economy grew? Where did the money come from for consumers (a big chunk of which are non-managerial employees) to spend if their real wages did not grow? Zero growth in real wages mean the consumer could not have afforded more than what he did 1970. But the US economy witnessed a prolonged boom from 1990s till the sub-prime crisis hit them. What explains this?

Businesses produced and serviced the market (consumers) and earned their profit. Employees were paid less but their working hours increased. Shareholders and the government got their due. Promoters and the management got lot more than what was due to them. This elite group of owners and managerial people channeled their surpluses in the form of lending to common people, who borrowed and spent in order to boost the business and the economy. It was mentioned in the article that 2/3 of dollars spent in US came from consumers and a major chunk of which was funded by credit card companies and banks.

The owners and the lot gained twice, first by exploiting workers by paying sub-optimal wages and secondly by earning return on the money lent to the same men they exploited. The author of the article terms it as a scam that compares with none of the ealier ones that the US economy had witnessed for the sheer ingenuity.

This theory may not completely explain the current crisis faced by the US economy. But then if you are a left leaning person then you will be in the boat with Aseem Shrivastava. The Government was complicit (as is everywhere) through policies that completely shifted the responsibility for distribution of wealth and income into the private domain. They also did not discipline the spending and infact encouraged heavy borrowing through cheap loans, for both the corporate and the individual. After all it is the corporate that funds the campaigns and not the comman man.

It is prudent to tighten the interest rate a bit at the sign of indiscriminate spending. But then that means going against the wind, which not very popular even with the comman man. It is always better to bear bit of toughness when you are on a high than when you are down. Alas, this widom only finds deaf ears. US fed kept the rates low all along the boom period to encourage growth and consumerism. But when the economy needs a real kick on the back, there is not much leeway to reduce rates. After all interest rates cannot go below zero.

6 comments:

  1. I drew the diagram and pasted it alongside to help understand the flows. Just see how ingeniously it was devised by people, intentionally or not.

    Common man gets less for his work and borrows to spend more than what he could afford. This presents further opportunity for the haves to further grow their wealth. This further boosts the market for products and services and as the common man spends the borrowed money to consume more.It leads to more wealth creation, a big chunk of which go to the haves. The cycle continued till the bust happened last year.

    As mentioned in the post, this theory alone do not explain the economic crisis in US but then it is a major problem

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  2. This promises to be another HEATED discussion, let us hope it does not get too hot for comfort.

    It is my thinking that people who buy into ideologies opt out of freedom. It does not matter what your ideology is- it might be advaita, it might be evolution, it might be communism, it might be capitalism- once you think something or someone provides you with all answers, you are not thinking on your own.

    Same here. Capitalism, Communism, Socialism are all nonsense words- because Capitalist countries have regulations which are Communist, and Communist countries show wealth disparities worse than in the Capitalist ones; no comments about the socialist countries- they are neither capitalist nor communist or both communist and capitalist or what...

    As for the economics of wealth creation and distribution, the stone age rule prevails- if you have got weapons, you will use them. Intellect is such a weapon, and money is such a weapon, class is such a weapon.

    People everywhere want more and more. More money, more power, more fame, more knowledge, more of me, more of mine. This is the central fact of human life.

    And ideologies grow up to justify this.

    Unless we accept the universal application of the Statistical Law of Regression to The Mean, political and economic systems will always be skewed in favour of the rich, the clever and the powerful.

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  3. Oh, i forgot to mention, skewed in favour of the fit, in favour of the 'deserving'.

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  4. This post or the article does not glorify any particular ideology nor does it attempt to throw mud at anything. It is just an explanation, one of many, for the current state of affairs in USA and global economy in general. To a great extent the view expounded is based on facts than any subjective assessment. The model of this ingenuity was build upon facts.

    Whether something is non-sense or not is beyond the scope of this post.

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  5. It is interesting to note that if this viewpoint correctly describes the situation, it is a system we in India have long been struggling with.

    The Lal Salaam blokes would hold this out as justification for their continued existence.

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  6. It definitely is a major cause for the problem in USA SB. Wages have not grown in real terms for over three decades whereas compensation of top management and wealth of employers have grown multi-fold again in real terms. And the economy grew on the back of huge consumerism that was fueled by the growth of credit card and financial companies.

    Without doubt we in India suffer from the same malady. As also pointed by Baskar in his commetns, China also fares poor in this respect. So it is not ideology that can be faulted for this phenomenon but the mind set of people with power and wealth.

    End of the day if there is one division that harms this world more than anything else, then it is the one between 'haves' and 'havenots'.

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